GoogleOS: What To Expect

There's no such thing as the GoogleOS in reality - but despite that, it is one of the most talked about Web products. People can't stop discussing it - and even imagining screenshots for it! Seems like everyone expects Google to get into direct competition with Microsoft, by releasing an operating system. However Google refuses such claims and even makes fun of this kind of buzz. Nevertheless we decided to analyze where Google may be heading with their product strategy - and from that determine what are the chances of a GoogleOS.
Possibilities

We see 3 scenarios for a GoogleOS:

* A web based desktop (i.e. operating system)
* A full featured Linux distribution
* A lightweight Linux distro and/or BIOS

We'll try to explain each of these in detail - then in the conclusion, make our prediction. What's more, we think this could be less than 6 months away from happening.
A Web Based Operating System

If you asked "what will a GoogleOS look like?" - most people would answer that it'll be an AJAX-powered copy of the Windows desktop. In other words, a WebOS (aka webtop). To remind you of what a WebOS is, it is basically a virtual desktop on the web and has various built-in applications. Google already has a history of producing web-based products that mimic desktop apps - Gmail was the first desktop client like email reader, and now they have Google Docs & Spreadsheets, Google Calendar and other desktop-like products. Also note that Google's internal open sourced widget toolset, GWT, allows them to replicate any desktop capability.

On the other hand, a bunch of startups like YouOS , Goowy, DesktopTwo, Xin and open source eyeOS are already tackling this exact problem - and have been for a while now. So if Google engineers are not already working on their own webOS project, they may want to snap up one of these! AJAX powered YouOS, which is a yet another Paul Graham investment, seems like the most obvious choice at this time.

Screenshot from YouOS

Besides the startups we've already mentioned, there may be other surprises that Google looks at for WebOS purposes. Meebo, for instance, has created a very large user base with their web-based meta instant messaging product (it enables you to use multiple IM services on the same webpage). IM is a crucial application, because many people spend a lot of time on the computer IM'ing. So Meebo could use IM as a base - and utilize the empty spaces on their page for new applications.

Meebo OS with fictional Calculator application (taken from YouOS)

30 Boxes also has a webtop offering, but it looks less promising than their calendar. Start pages like NetVibes, PageFlakes and WebWag could also potentially enter the webos business.
A Full Featured Linux Distro

Another possibility for Google is to create their own Linux-based operating system. The free license of Linux allows anyone to create their own version of Linux. Although Linux is the most popular operating system in the server market and it's free, it is still far behind Windows and MacOS in the desktop market. Some believe this may change with the latest enhancements to the Linux user interface.

This scenario is a more traditional model to replace Windows - with a direct competitor, instead of creating a web-based replacement. Indeed this has already been widely speculated - Ubuntu, a semi-free Linux derivative, was rumored to be acquired by Google.

If this scenario happened, Google may open up their operating system as a free download and promote it on their homepage - as they once did with Firefox. They could also make a networked file system the default, instead of the complex UNIX file hierarchy of Linux - which is another reason why Linux struggles in the mainstream desktop market.

A Lightweight Linux Distro or BIOS

A lightweight Linux distro is a possibility. For example an OS that simply booted up the computer, connected to the internet, and then opened Firefox. Then leave the rest to Google's web sites and apps. This is possibly the most logical strategy, because Google could then create a homepage that connects all their services and applications - and people will have the freedom to use other web sites and services as well.

Similar concepts already exist. For instance, Puppy and Damn Small are 2 credit card sized Linux distros. The good thing about these is that you can carry them everywhere you go - putting the credit card sized CD or the USB drive into your pocket and using your own operating system anywhere you go. Why? Because these distributions don't need to be installed and can work directly from the CD or the USB drive.

ByzantineOS, a dead project now, was doing exactly this. Its sole purpose was to boot up and open a Mozilla based window manager - but then you could not get out of your browser window!

A screenshot of ByzantineOS, showing the user stuck inside the browser

However, Google may be considering an even more radical solution and planning to replace BIOS with their own version. BIOS means 'basic input/output system' and it is the built-in software that determines what a computer can do - for example it controls the keyboard and display screen. Google's latest sponsorship of LinuxBIOS may be a step towards researching this. In that case, Google could agree with hardware vendors to pre-install Google's BIOS-based operating system.

Conclusion: GoogleOS will tackle Microsoft's Vista OS head on

We believe that everything will become much clearer in the following 6 months. Microsoft will put pressure on Google with its Vista OS, which will receive relatively high adoption just like any other new Windows release (although probably not as high as historically Microsoft has enjoyed!). As Vista's adoption increases, so will the adoption of its default search engine Live Search. From Microsoft's perspective, this will have a positive effect on all Live and MSN sites. What end users are looking for is ease-of-use and satisfactory experiences - which in a lot of cases starts from the Vista OS.

In that scenario, Google's usage rates may be negatively affected. So we predict at that point, Google will start a more punchy strategy - pushing Firefox and some form of Google OS. Yahoo! has already responded to the Microsoft threat in a friendly fashion, by offering a customized IE7 for its users. But we think Google will be more aggressive and competitive and will push their own OS. The GoogleOS may be a reality within 6 months!

Written by Emre Sokullu and edited by Richard MacManus.
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Google's Future? GBrowser, GooglePC, Google NetPC and Google ISP

Recent chatter indicates Google may be preparing to launch its own internet browser. But this might be only the first step in a much more massive Google strategy that could include a GooglePC and Google ISP service.

Concerning the Google Browser, many are giving the title GBrowser to this rumored challenger of Internet Explorer. The evidence that supports Google's GBrowser efforts are as follows:

• Google has recently hired several key programmers from Microsoft who worked on the Windows operating system
• Google hired key programmers from Sun and BEA Systems
• Google hired Ben Goodger, the genius behind the upstart Firefox browser (which Forbes says is "better than Internet Explorer by leaps and bounds)
• Google has even hired Microsoft programmers working on future operating systems Avalon and Longhorn (updates that are already out-of-date thanks to Google Desktop Search)
• Finally, last year Google registered the domain name GBrowser.com

Introducing the GooglePC at Under $300

GBrowser would make it easier for Google to control both data and applications, bypassing Microsoft entirely. In fact, it's conceivable that Google could launch its own PC which wouldn't need any Microsoft software. Here's what the Google PC could look like:

• A low-cost PC running the Linux operating system (saves $100 to $150 versus Microsoft's operating system)
• Features the GBrowser, the much speculated Google Browser
• Email provided by GMail, a current free service offered by Google (no one really needs Outlook)
• Microsoft-compatible applications powered by GBrowser and/or free open source software like GNOME's spreadsheet Gnumeric and word processor Abiword
• DVD support via Intermedia's popular WinDVD program (in fact, just this past week Google and Intermedia announced a partnership; nothing too explicit, but it shows that they are talking and have a relationship)

There are various ways a Google PC could be priced. On the cheap side, a minimal setup for basic tasks could cost at little as $150 to $300, including monitor. Thus, Google is not only a threat to Microsoft, but to Dell, HP, Gateway, Sony and other PC manufacturers as well. Google could subcontract out the actual manufacturing of the GooglePCs.

Finally, one more note, Google already sells enterprise search servers online at their Google Store. And why is the Google Store selling seemingly silly products like the Google Fast Lane Travel Mug, Google Classic Infant Rib Hat and Google Icon Stix and Stonz Magnet Game? A plausible explanation is that they are trying to gain expertise on how to run an online store in order to provide a platform for selling the GooglePC direct to consumers.

Google ISP and The "Free" GooglePC

Just this past Friday, Google inched closer to entering the high speed ISP arena by introducing the Google Web Accelerator. The Google Web Accelerator promises to speed up the high speed internet browsing experience by taking advantage of Google's massive centralized cache of the internet as well as a small portion of a user's hard drive. (We tested it and discovered we could surf the net 15% faster.) Google can use this muscle to forge partnerships with one or more high speed ISPs and could brand the high speed service Google ISP.

So what? Yahoo already has a high speed ISP partnership with SBC, but that relationship is entirely on paper. Any Google ISP relationship would leverage the Google Web Accelerator to speed up the browsing experience.

Are you still saying so what? OK. Well, it's feasible that Google could give away the GooglePC for "free" in exchange for a fixed term premium high speed internet service contract. ISPs may be forced to offer and co-promote a Google ISP service in their regions in a similar way that most cable companies need to carry and pay for ESPN. Furthermore, anytime the Google Web Accelerator is distributed, the Google Toolbar comes along for the ride, increasing Google's reach.

In short, the GooglePC could encapsulate all of the Google features on a PC without needing one cent of Microsoft software. Google ISP and the Google Web Accelerator would further vertically integrate Google into the internet surfing experience.

Bypassing the PC Route via the Google NetPC (The Un-PC PC)

Finally, some say Google could instead offer a NetPC (a cross between a dummy terminal and a bare bones PC where all data would be stored and served centrally at Google). Per this example of a NetPC setup, you can see that a NetPC looks like a regular PC except for there is no bulky "big box" that makes lots of noise and produces a lot of heat. Just plug the "little box" into the internet and you're ready to go. Almost all files would be stored at Google, although a small local hard drive or flash drive would still exist locally for caching reasons.

One big advantage of NetPC's is that you'd never need to install software since Google would provide everything that most people need (email, browsing, word processing, spreadsheets and perhaps a few other things). What about games? If Google launches the Google NetPC, expect game companies like Electronic Arts to build for-fee games directly into the Google NetPC system (housed centrally at Google).

It's worth pointing out that the Google NetPC would be different than any NetPC on the market, since it would have millions of users. As such, Google could expand the size of the NetPC marketplace, ultimately lowering prices to perhaps $50 to $150 (from current levels of $300 to $500), including keyboard, monitor and mouse. Of course, Google could offer the Google NetPC for free in exchange for a fixed term Google ISP contract.

If these prices sound optimistic, observe how Apple's iPod has driven down prices of miniature high-capacity hard drives. Google could do for the PC and NetPC what Apple's iPod did for personal music players.

The Google NetPC also increases the chances of a Google-owned Google ISP. Google could choose to increase the fiber optic "fat pipe" coming out of its Mountain View headquarters. By going this route, Google could buy or build their own ISP, making a Google ISP a reality. Thus, the Google NetPC running GBrowser, the Google Web Accelerator and various other Google tools could exclude the following from the revenue equation: Microsoft, computer manufacturers and various ISPs. Ah, the plot thickens!

International Expansion: Google in China and India

The current combined population of China and India is 2.9 billion, compared to 293 million in the US. Thus, China and India represent 10X the population of the US and both have a rising middle class. Whoever can get their foot "in the door" in these countries has opportunity to earn massive amounts of revenue.

Which is more likely? (1) The rising middle classes in China and India will shell out $500 to $1000 for a PC loaded with unnecessary Microsoft software. Or (2) the rising middle classes in China and India will shell out less than $100 for a NetPC since it does the same things a full-scale PC does.

Google is in a great position to provide a NetPC to both China and India. At the very least, they'd make a great technology partner for whatever company the governments of China and India favor. One last time - this could be accomplished without any Microsoft software. So Google is indeed a huge threat to Bill Gates and Microsoft.

SquirrelNet's Prediction

Look for Google to bring GBrowser to market within 2 years, the GooglePC within 3 years and Google ISP partnerships within 5 years. For further validation of this theory, consider what Fortune Magazine is saying:

The idea that Google will one day marginalize Microsoft's operating system and bypass Windows applications is already starting to become reality. The most paranoid people at Microsoft even think "Google Office" is inevitable. Google is taking over operating system features too, like desktop search.

Onward might Google!

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